GreenFin - Energy Transition
Welcome to GreenFin Energy Transitions
The Status Quo
Over the last 100+ years, society has evolved into a petroleum-driven economy. Economic and industrial activity correlate strongly with energy/oil consumption and transport of goods. The processes associated with this have very strong momentum, taking decades to reverse.
The current ecosystem is supported with fossil fuels, i.e. carbon (C) and hydrogen (H). Petroleum is 84% C, 12% H; Methane is 20% C, 80% H; Coal is 84% C, 5% H.
Every developed economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels, in turn linked to industrial activity and economic production. The current paradigm amongst strategic planners is how to phase out fossil fuels and update Energy policy frameworks.
BUT the current industrial forecasts show a persistent increase in fossil fuel demand out to 2050.
The current system was built with the support of the highest calorifically-dense source of energy the world has ever known (oil), in cheap abundant quantities, with easy credit and seemingly unlimited mineral resources. Its replacement is hoped to be done at a time when there is expensive energy, a more fragile finance system, not enough resources, and an unprecedented world population, embedded in a deteriorating natural environment.
And this has to be done within a few decades...
Planetary Transition - Objectives
We are also in need of planetary solutions to deal with our man-made problems – climate change, long-term declines in natural capital, population growth, waste and pollution.
• Reduce GHG emissions to net zero, to mitigate climate change
• Remove industry waste streams and existing wastes from land and oceans
• Build out a global zero waste circular economy
• Restore arable land by re-establishing the soil food web in whole regions
• Revegetate large regions, and re-establish the natural biodiversity of flora and fauna
Greenfin Energies - Energy Transition
Energy Transition – The Task Ahead
Rebuilding the fossil fuel energy system and supporting infrastructure requires new technologies, new approaches and lower costs. To do this, a reliable energy source with an ERoEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) ratio of something like 50:1 is required.
• Nuclear power may need a larger footprint than current.
• The existing renewable energy sector will continue to develop into a major part of the electricity system, although it may well be a stepping stone to a final solution.
• Waste-to-Energy needs to be similarly scaled on a global basis.
• Hydrogen will continue to develop into a second energy vector, alongside electricity. For the right cost of “green” hydrogen we are probably looking at 2035-2040 for electrolysis hydrogen. TCD hydrogen (from methane splitting) is therefore the most realistic zero emissions bridging solution.
• Full phase out of fossil fuels is unrealistic.
The practical solution is to “green” fossil fuel production, with near zero waste /emissions.